U.S. president Donald Trump’s threats toward Canada and the trade war are quickly becoming a defining issue of the federal election campaign – and Islanders are paying attention.
“Many people are calling this the most important election in Canadian history, or certainly in living memory,” says Michael Prince, a political scientist at the University of Victoria.
“The U.S. situation, the relationship, is paramount in the conversation,” says Victoria voter, Joanna. “The environment is another thing that obviously we’re all concerned about, but I think we need to deal with the obvious problem,” she adds.
Esquimalt-Saanich Sooke riding resident, Hugh Kennedy says he thought the Liberals might’ve given their leader Mark Carney more time to establish himself – before calling a snap election April 28.
He says he’s watching Trump’s moves and the Canadian response.
“I’m retired now so I have to watch what this guy is doing because he can have a very big influence over my portfolio of investments,” says Kennedy.
Stuart Dorland in Victoria’s riding agrees U.S.-Canada relations is a major topic, but he says it’s not the only issue worth talking about.
“Hopefully we can take this opportunity to move forward on the issues that really will strengthen our country,” he says.
There are 343 ridings up for grabs across the country, which is five more than last time. Seven of the national ridings are on Vancouver Island.
“We’ve got the Liberals and the Conservatives pretty well statistically tied among decided voters in most national polls,” says Prince. “(There are) differences across provinces of course, but overall we’ve seen the rebirth or revival of a Liberal party that looked like it was about to be sent off into the wilderness for a long time,” he says.
Despite any Liberal surges in the polls, the party hasn’t won’t a federal seat on Vancouver Island since Keith Martin took the former Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca riding in 2008.
“I don’t see actually any ridings where the Liberals would be favoured. I think the Liberals might have a distant chance, but again, it really depends on how much vote splitting there is,” says Camosun College political scientist, Dan Reeve, of the island landscape.
“I think it’ll be each of the Greens, the New Democrats and the Liberals framing themselves as being the best placed party to overturn the Conservatives – and I think it’ll be a question of where do people go,” says Reeve.
Due to the high stakes nature of the election, some political pundits figure voter turn out could rise. According to Elections Canada, 62.6 per cent of registered voters in the last national election in September 2021.
“It’s going to be kind of a difficult decision,” says Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke riding voter James Down. “Traditionally, I’m not one to really vote strategically but I think largely a lot of folks I know that normally don’t do that are – and looking at ensuring that we have a government in power that kind of supports Canadian values.”
“Never before in my lifetime has the question of Canada’s sovereignty even kind of vaguely entered the possibility of a discussion and I think it’s on a lot of people’s minds,” says Reeve.
