The latest opinion poll gauging public support for each of the parties is showing Liberals and Conservatives in a neck-in-neck race for the most members of parliament elected in British Columbia, largely at the expense of NDP seats.
Research Co conducted the online survey March 23 and 24, finding 41 per cent of B.C. respondents would vote Liberal, while 39 per cent would vote Conservative; the margin of error is 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
“We have statistical ties between the conservatives and the Liberals in Ontario, in Atlantic Canada and in British Columbia, which is nothing short of historic,” said company president, Mario Canseco. “It’s weird because usually what you have, is the coalescing of voters towards one party happening on the later stages of the campaign.”
The New Democrats are downplaying their eight per cent support, but Canseco reiterated the same observation many political scientists have already pointed out – that voters are most likely to choose between the two biggest parties when national interests are front and centre.
In the poll, Research Co found that Canada-US relations were the most important issue for a third of B.C. voters, and Canseco speculated that voter turnout could be higher than usual as a result.
“It would suggest that people who are usually cynical about politics and hate all politicians and believe they’re all corrupt are going to pay attention to the election and actually cast a ballot,” he said. “We could have a voter turnout that is similar to what we had in the 1980s, which was 75 per cent.”
At dissolution, B.C. had a three-way split between the three biggest parties, but analysts believe the NDP could face significant losses on Vancouver Island and beyond.
