CTVNews.ca will have exclusive polling data each morning throughout the federal election campaign. Check back each morning to see the latest from a three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research - CTV News and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster.
The federal Liberals are continuing to hold onto their eight-point lead over the Conservatives on Day 11 of the federal election campaign.
A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research ending April 1 has Mark Carney’s Liberals at 45 per cent, leading Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, who are at 37 per cent.
The New Democratic Party has dropped to nine per cent, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (five per cent), Green Party of Canada (two per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (one per cent).
“It’s a two-party consolidation compared to past elections” that is “redefining the election landscape,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research and official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail.
“This puts a spotlight on how non-governing parties are being squeezed by the focus on the front-runners, who will deal with the U.S. administration and guide the Canadian economy through uncertain times,” said Nanos.
Regional support
The Liberals also are leading in every region except the Prairies, where the Conservatives continue to dominate.
Nanos pointed earlier this week to a “significant shift” emerging in the critical battleground of Ontario that’s boosting the Liberals’ fortunes. Regional data show the Liberals at 50 per cent in that province versus 38 per cent for the Conservatives.
The Prairies, meanwhile, have the Conservatives at 59 per cent support versus the Liberals at 24 per cent.
The Liberals have a commanding lead in the Atlantic region at 64 per cent versus the Conservatives at 27 per cent; and in Quebec where the Liberals are at 49 per cent versus the Conservatives at 21 per cent.
Who is preferred prime minister?
When it comes to who Canadians prefer to become prime minister, 49 per cent chose Carney compared to 34 per cent for Poilievre. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh remains far behind at five per cent.
Gender gap
A gender breakdown of the Nanos tracking shows women are more likely to vote for the Liberals than men. Fifty-two per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals, compared with 29 per cent of women who’d vote Conservative.
Meanwhile, 38 per cent of men said they would back the Liberals compared with 46 per cent for the Conservatives.
Methodology
CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, March 30 April 1, 2025, n=1,285, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
