UCP gaining support as Alberta's provincial election nears: poll

Published: February 10, 2023 at 9:27AM EST

UCP holds narrow lead over NDP: poll Austin Lee reports on an Abacus Data poll that suggests the UCP has 47 per cent of voter support, compared to 45 per cent for the NDP.

A new poll from Abacus Data suggests the United Conservative Party is gaining steam as election season ramps up, and has a lead over the Alberta NDP.

The poll suggests this will once again be a two-horse race, with the Alberta Party sitting a distant third having received a minute five per cent support in the poll.

Abacus Data - Alberta voter intention An Abacus Data poll released on Feb. 10 suggests the UCP has 47 per cent voter support, the NDP has 45 per cent and the Alberta Party holds 5 per cent.

"There is still a sizeable group of people who did vote for the UCP back in 2019, who remain either remain undecided," said David Coletto, Abacus Data chairman and CEO. "They still are not entirely comfortable with Danielle Smith, they're still I think, disappointed with some of the decisions that the Jason Kenney administration made and so they're still sitting on the sidelines.

"The other side of that, though, is they aren't completely comfortable with the New Democrats and Rachel Notley either."

The survey also found that Calgary will be a key battleground for political hopefuls, with the NDP currently holding a slight edge over the UCP.

Voters in Edmonton seem more willing to vote NDP, while outside Alberta's two major cities, the UCP leads the way.

Abacus Data - Alberta voter regional intention Abacus Data results released Feb. 10 showing party support by region.

Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 Alberta adults between Feb. 1 and 6 as the provinces inches closer to the next general election on May 29.

The poll suggests the overall mood of the province has slightly improved, with one-in-three people saying they believe the province is headed in the right direction.

Still, most respondents believe Alberta is heading in the wrong direction, suggesting whichever party wins the election will have their work cut out for them.

Abacus Data - Direction of Alberta Abacus Data poll results released on Feb. 10 suggests 32 per cent of Albertans believe the province is headed in the right direction, an increase of seven per cent over Dec. 2022 results.

The conservatives are seen as the most trusted party to defend the province's oil and gas sector, while respondents feel the new democrats are more trusted to tackle issues related to climate change.

As for the top three concerns heading into the general election, it's a mixed bag:

Abacus Data poll - Issues of importance in Alberta Abacus Data poll - Issues of importance in Alberta.

"Interestingly, neither party has an advantage when it comes to who's going to help people with the cost of living crisis that they're facing right now. Equal numbers trust the New Democrats, as do the UCP," said Coletto. “That is the one issue where you're likely going to see more competition between the parties as we get closer to that election, because it is the one issue that almost all Albertans are thinking about and worried about right now."

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.1 per cent 19 times out of 20.